Current results as of 06/06 I’m currently working on a small software that would make all these analysis, bet recording automated you can follow the progress of this in my github: betting-to-json
| Hypothesis | Bet placed | Win | Loss | Current standing | Growth (From yesterday) | Current phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Safe and sound | 28 | 16 | 12 | +$50.30 | -6% | Trial (ends 15/06) |
| Risky | 35 | 20 | 16 | +$134.30 | +3% | Trial (ends 15/06) |
| In-Game betting | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| The risky strategy involves betting multiple times on the same game for different outcome which minimize the risks - Keep in mind when looking at the win/loss ratio as 1 game with two bet will count as a bet win and loss | ||||||
| was 40 |
Thought process
I always looked at people betting as they’re wasting money, when looking at the odds you definitely know that the house has an edge. Now they has been people being quite succesful in betting, from what I’ve seen most, if not all, are not even watching the games, they’re watching stats. This is what I’m going to try to experiment here. I will try multiple hypothesis that I think might have potential. Each ‘hypothesis’ or ‘strategies’ will run in three stages:
- 2 Week trial - Program doesn’t have access to a betting site but does remember which outcome was chosen and at what odds
- If the 2 week trial end-up positive phase 2 will starts which involves giving the program access to real betting but with very minimal dollar-per-bet ($1) which minimize the losses - Phase two will run for a month.
- Phase 3 - If phase 2 complete as a positive we can move on to phase 3 which involves:
- Increase the bet size to moderate ($5)
- Giving access to multiple betting sites to figure out which to use for each game to maximize profits
- Testing-out hypothesis for the best time to place bet (24hrs/5hrs/IG etc..)
Common
All strategies have things in common, mainly they both will use the same sets of data which for each game is:
- Current standing for both teams
- Player health - Player fatigue
- Streak
- Odds from few different site on said game
- Importance of the game of each teams
- Players private life key-event (Scandals etc..)
- Weather
- Defensive stability
- Travel fatigue
- Pythagorean expectation
Risky strategy
This section is mostly notes on what to improve Betting size depending on odds? How to quickly and effectively run simulation on previous bet to find the best way to bet?
In-Game betting
This strategy requires a lot of coding so will not be live for a while This section is a work-in-progress, right now Im only listing stuff I should not forget while implementing this strategy. After a goal the bet tends to totally switch around - Run an analysis on teams that scored the first goal but did not win. Key factors to watch for during the game:
- Key injury
- Decisive arbritage factor (Such as a disallowed goal)
Next bets and though process:
These are going to be hard to bet on - Some of those games include not well known teams that are highly difficult to predict and have less data, but lets try this anyway:
Saudi Arabia vs Australia This is a prime example of a game not to be betted on - Everything is pretty much at 50%, no advantages for one or the other - Will pass
Jordan vs Iraq Jordan win @ 43% - Draw @ 28% - Iraq @ 28% - The pytheagorean is aligned with this - Bookmaker odds: 2.13-3.05-3.42 - Based on this and recent forms I want to place a bet that goes against statistics - Double bet for Jordan Win and Draw (The statistic would have suggested an Iraq win)
Palestine vs Oman Palestine is sighlty favored but the h2h between the two favors Oman - Both needs the win this is too risky for a bet i’ll pass.
Poland vs Finland Poland @ 60% win - undefeated in the last 5 H2H - Iand this can be a double bet based on the odds so lets go for Poland win and Draw
// My analysis kind a crashed after this point so I only had some limited information to make my decisions:
Albania vs Latvia Alabania seems to be favored @ 68% win this is reflected in the bookmakers odds 1.78 - 3.45 - 4.80 / The 1.78 odds seems very high for the likeliness of a win - I’ll go Albania in the safe strategy
Romania vs Cyprus Cyprus has had a miserable form compared to Romania and are missing top scorer - I’ll for Romania in the safe strategy
This is my breaking point in term of reading/researching and deciding - I’ll stop now even tho their are still games and should be analyzed - Would not make decision about those passed games.
Games that have less than 1.10 odds so unbettable: Malta vs netherland Austrich vs Saint Marin Serbia vs Andorra
Past bets with thought process
See the full list here: Bet history