For current analysis navigate here Sports betting Previous bet section was getting too long so decided to put all my thoughts in this page: These are all previous bets with some thought associated to it:
I usually try to write-out my thought process when placing each bets, this allows me to reflect on how I place them and how to correct course if my bets were wrong. I only do this during the week as the weekend are filled with games it would take me way too long. In this section Iâll write down past games, the actual result and how I can improve my algorithm.
Iran vs North Korea Expected win for Iran @ 82% - Iran unbeating in the last 25 H2H but still had 7 draws. Iran may rest starters as well since they are already qualified. Will wait before placing this one. Iran won 3-0
Uzbekistan vs Qatar Expected win for Uzbekistan @ 60% - 65 using the pythagorean expectation - Two things makes me question this bet - Uzbekistan is already qualified + 60% is not such a clear cut for 1.60 will wait and see before placing this bet. Uzbekistan won 3-0 so it was a clear cut!
Kyrgyzstan vs UAE UAE is in qualifying fight and Kyrgyzstan is already eliminated - UAE unbeaten in the last 5 games and has won three previous H2H - Bookmarkers odd at 1.65, 3.70 4.65 - Im placing a bet on a UAE win in the safe strategy. - Ended in a draw :o ! I need to make sure i take those draws into account
South Korea vs Kuwait This seems like a clear cut game with the win for South Korea - Bookmakers odd at 1.10 so just in half so that we can place a bet in the safe strategy South Korea won
China vs Bahrain Analysis shows a China win @ 42% - Draw @ 27% and Bahrain win @ 28% - H2H record of 1 win and 4 draws - While China is favorite they are already eliminated and has lost 4 of their last 5 games this could be an upsetter. Bookmakerâs place this game at 2.22 - 3.08 - 3.18 - This is a tough one as a double bet on draw + either win is really tempting but on which teams⊠Last time China won was against Bahrain so I decided to pass on this, in the end China won at 94minutes 1-0
Japan vs Indonesia My analysis shows a 86% win for Japan and his consistent with bookmakers odd at 1.16 for Japan win - Decided to place a bet for Japan on the safe strategy - Japan won
Colombia vs Peru I remember when running this analysis I was pretty tired of doing this - and it showed, when re-reading what I wrote for this bet I do not know why I placed a bet - for 1.27 it clearly wasnt a safe bet. I ended up placing a safe bet on Colombia win. Ended up in a draw.
Czech Republic vs Montenegro Czech never lost against them - Montenegro only won of their 5 previous games - Czech is playing at home with weather favoring the home team. My analysis shows a 70-20-10 and Pythagorean Expectation of 73% for Czech. Bookmaker odds are: 1.30-5.35-9.50 - Placed a bet for Czech win in the safe strategy. Final score 2-0 for Czech republic
Norway vs Italy While Italy was somewhat favored my analsis showed that Italy being heavely injured and not playing at home seems to give somewhat of an edge to Norway. Odds of 2.80 - 3.38 - 2.47 were perfect for a double bet Norway Win and Italy Win. Final score 3-0 for Norway
North Macedonia vs Belgium My analysis showed that Belgium was not in good form and had lost previously to north Macedonia - I decided not to bet on this as 1.35 was way too low for that risks. Ended in a draw 1-1 / Good call
Estonia vs Israel Analysis shows a 10 - 25 65 split heavely favoring Israel based on recent performance against âbiggerâ teams. Bookmaker odds are: 6-4.10-1.52. This seem like a Safe bet for Israel.
Germany vs Portugal Initial Analysis - A bit on the portugal side regarding injuries - But anything else seem to point for a Germany win- Lost that bet
Dominica vs British Island Analysis seem to show that a draw was highly probable - The odds didnât allow for a double bet - Final result 3-0 for Dominica so way off from the draw !
Barbados vs Aruba Analysis showed almost a tied regarding odds 35-30-35 - Pass that bet, the result ended up being 1-1 draw.
Montserrat vs Belize Analysis showed 40-30-30 - Based on research decided to place two bets on Belize win and Montserrat win - Montserrat won paying back the other bet and making some profits
Paris SG vs Inter Milan I didnt have time to write the detailed analysis here but my bet ended up being a double bet on Paris and Inter.
Reims vs Metz This is one of those the analysis I ran and the bookmakerâs odd donât match - Bookmaker place Reims @ 2.30 Draw @ 3.25 Metz @ 3.25 - My analysis shows a very slight advantages to Reims but cannot be responsible for a 2.30 odd. Multiple things bugs me - If I look at the odds I should be placing two bets, one for Reims win and one for a draw since most of their encounters end-up in a draw. Now Metz has momentum which Reims doesnât have + When I ran a Pythagorean Expectation on this game Metz came first with a 42.3% win vs Reimsâ 38.5%. Iâm going to pass on this one - If I absolutely had to place a bet it will be a double on Draw&Metz.
Betis SĂ©ville vs Chelsea
After running my analysis I came up with Chelsea win @ 55%, draw @ 25% and Betis win @ 20% - Consistent with the bookmakerâs odd 4.50-3.55-1.84. 55% is definetely not a sure thing, the lack of dual >2 odds make double betting impossible. I added the new factors in and it didnât really have any impacts has both teams never had a head-to-head. One very interesting thing is once again the losing team scored first which completely shifted the odds. I really need to work on this in-game betting strategy.
Elversberg vs FC Heideneim
After running my analysis I came up with Elverserb win @ 44%, draw @ 29% and Heidenheim win @ 27% - This analysis almost matched what the bookmakerâ odds were: 2.28/3.48/3.00 - I decided to go against the bookmakerâ odds and place two bet, one on Elverserb and one on draw this, theoretically gave me insurance. Final results are in⊠Heidenheim won - If I had follow the bookmakers odd I would have won this bet. What could be improved? Iâve looked online for the game analysis and tried to find stuff/factors that could have been anticipated by myself. From what I can see these are some of the factors that came into play:
- 19min injury of a key player
- Heidenheim is a much more experience team than Elversberg having played in bigger tournament
- A goal for Elversberg was disallowed which impacted the teamâs moral
- Elversberg wasnât defensivily stable While some of these are very very interesting for my 3rd strategy (aka in-game betting) only two factors can be added to my analysis: The current rosterâs experience in playing high-stake games and the current teamâs defense stability